Winter Battle Pass Predictions

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If you are familiar with the Dota 2 compendiums, then you know that the Predictions section can often be one of the hardest to fill out, and unless you are following the meta its hard to know who or what to pick. In this post I’m going to break down the Predictions and try to help you learn the best ways to fill them out (even if you don’t pick the same thing as me). You can also head over to Dotabuff, to get some data for your picks

Hero Predictions

This section is the first one in the compendium, and even though it seems like it could be easy to guess most of them, there is some information to know before you place your guesses.

Hero Predictions

  • Most Picked Hero– While you might want to just pick Invoker you have to consider that with bans and counter picks a few characters might not get picked as often. So you have to look at the second or third picks for the most picked. Lone Druid has been absolutely incredible recently and his flexibility as a lane pusher and team fighter is hard to ignore, but with him not being a core for most teams (with the exception of Alliance) chances are that he will get past the first ban stage and picked up.
  • Most Banned Hero– This is where you need to think about the carry position and think about first ban, Ember Spirit has ridiculous map presence, wave clear, high damage, and when played right he can almost singlehandedly win the game for any team, so with a high-profile tournament you need to ban out someone like Ember, you can also think about heroes like Invoker, or Zeus for this spot.
  • Hero with highest Win Rate– One of the toughest to choose out of this whole section, you might be tempted to pick a carry or position 2 hero, and I wouldn’t blame you, but a good support like Omniknight can use abilities in place of items, allowing the team to pick up more of what they need to win the game. You also have to consider that this is averaged, so pick someone who gets  picked often!
  • Hero with Highest Kill Average– Since this is averaged out you have to pick someone who isn’t just a niche pick, but someone who can dominate when they do get picked up. I put Spectre into this spot because she is popular enough that I think there will be 5 games played, but not so popular that she will see games to bring the average down. There are a few other picks you could put here, but remember, they have to be played at least 5 games, so unless BigDaddy N0tail manages to pick him up way more than usual, Meepo isn’t a good choice here.
  • Hero with highest Assist Average– You should be putting a support here, and one who can’t stay by themselves, or deal too much damage, I had a hard time picking between Dazzle and Bane. Omniknight is another good choice here, but since it includes wins and losses I think that Dazzle will just see more play and have a higher average. Avoid supports like Witch Doctor or Crystal Maiden who have some really insane damage.
  • Hero with lowest Death Average– For this pick I don’t think you can do any better than Morphling, he has multiple escapes, can stun his way out of a fight, and when all else fails he can dump all his stats into strength and walk away with 8k health. Typically played as a core, even if he does get into a bad position supports will throw themselves to protect him. He will definitely see more than 5 games too so I can’t think of a better pick here.
  • Hero with Highest Last Hits– Since this is the average, you need to pick someone who will see a lot of play, who also has good wave clear, I might change this from Ember Spirit, to someone like Shadow Fiend or Anti-mage. But think about your mid players and who they like to play. The major reason I choose Ember Spirit is that his ability to zip around the map and clear multiple waves in a few seconds really could push him above everyone else.
  • Hero with Highest GPM average– You could put Alchemist here and not worry, or put in the same thing you put for the Last Hits category, I don’t think we will see any crazy jungle games this tournament, but you could also consider someone like Lone Druid here for that very reason. Either way I think if you get stuck on this one just put Alchemist.
  • Hero with Most Kills in a game– This is where your niche picks, and off the wall picks will really matter. Putting Meepo down just incase BigDaddy manages to get him might win, but there have been a few games where Arteezy has just dominated as Juggernaut, and during his twitch streams he has picked him a fair amount, so I think we might see a game where Jugg goes crazy. That said, you could put someone like Gyrocopter, Spectre, or Enchantress here and feel safe, but I think this is a great spot to think off the wall!
  • Hero with most Last Hits in a game– Since it’s not averaged and one game is all that matters I am confident that at some point Admiral Bulldog will get on Furion and just dominate. Dark Seer is another good choice for this spot too.

5150 Possible points

Team Predictions

This section it’s tough to not just pick your favorite team and move on, but with a little bit of thought this section could give you a massive amount of Battle Points.

Team Predictions

  • Winner of the Shanghai Major– Try not to just put your favorite team here, but if you do… thats cool too, gotta rep those colors
  • Team with the most Kills in a game– At some point there will be a game where one team’s power level goes over 9000 and just tears another team to shreds. I put EHOME in this spot because sometimes they have these games, and the Chinese play style tends to snowball more than other regions, leading to huge leads. Its also possible that any team could do this, but I have a feeling that it will be EHOME
  • Team with highest Kill average– Teams that prioritize team fights over farm, and have a high win rate will come out on top of this stat, and for that reason I’m going with OG. They have amazing synergy, and tend to look for fights to push a lead or come back from a deficit.
  • Team with fewest Deaths in a game– Evil Geniuses tend to play safer than other teams; trying to decrease deaths and push after winning fights, then retreat and do the same thing until they win.
  • Team with most Assists in a game– It’s natural to assume that the team with the most kills in a game will also get the most assists, but remember that 1 kill with a 5 man gank yields 4 assists, but a solo kill gives none. Like I said before OG just work so well together that I think they will end up with the most assists.
  • Team that wins the Longest game– I don’t think anyone can dispute that if a game is going over 60 minutes it’s going to have Alliance in it, and with them just playing so well together it’s safe to assume they will win that game.
  • Team that wins the Shortest game– look for those teams that prioritize early ganks and rushing the core. With EHOME at the top of the charts I wouldn’t be surprised if they took this category.
  • Team with highest Game Length average– See the longest game section.
  • Team that picks the Most different heroes– The teams that are at the top of the rankings usually try to play safe so they can win, but the teams like Archon, MVP Phoenix and CompLexity want to prove something. After their performance at the Captains Draft I think MVP might win this, but with Complexity being so new to the scene I don’t think its unreasonable to see them picking the most different.
  • Team that picks the Least different heroes– Like I said in the previous pick the teams at the top tend to pick safe heroes that they feel comfortable with, and Alliance is famous for picking the same heroes even when they aren’t good, for that reason I think they will stick with what they know this time.

8250 Possible Points

Player Predictions

This section is without a doubt one of the hardest, a player having a good or bad day could completely change how this plays out, but I went with what I thought was safest, and the picks that are strong recently.

Player Predictions

  • Player with highest Kill Average– You have to think about the teams again and pick a team that tends to win more, and gets into team fights, I think Evil Geniuses will be at the top of the lists for kills, maybe not the top though, and between Sumail and Arteezy I think that the team has focused on letting Sumail take the early game in mid, while helping Arteezy get gold and become a late game beast. There have been a few games recently where he has blown everyone else out of the water for kills.
  • Player with most Kills in a game– Since this isn’t averaged, I’m going to go with my earlier thought that at some point BigDaddy N0tail will get Meepo, and wreck the other team with him.
  • Player with lowest Death average– This is such a hard thing to pick, someone could manage to get 2 or three deaths the whole tournament then have a bad game and end up with 10 deaths. One interesting tactic is to pick a team that you think will drop out of the tournament early and pick their carry player, but thats pretty risky. I’m going with S4 because he just tends to slip out of fights more than other players, even when Alliance looses fights, he seems to get away.
  • Player with highest Assist average– I think that Fear is the best pick for this category, he just has such good game sense, and moves to help secure kills for Arteezy and Sumail so much. Think about your Bane or Shadow Shaman pickers, and it’s a safe bet one of them will take this one.
  • Player with most Assists in a game– You could pick the same as the last category, but I think in some of the early group stages Team Secret will have some good games, and since it’s averaged and I don’t think they will last long in the tournament I am going with Puppey to win this.
  • Player with highest Last Hit average– The Admiral is always a good choice when it comes to last hitting, you could also throw Universe into this spot and either is a good choice.
  • Player with most GPM in a game– There are games where Sumail just dominates the gold charts, and I think when it comes down to it he will win the catagory
  • Player with the highest GPM average– Same thinking as before but since it’s averaged I decided to go with BigDaddy N0tail, teams for some reason tend to let him farm while they prioritize Sumail, but this is another hard catagory, since someone like Universe or Admiral Bulldog could win too, GPM is tough since farm, kills, and least deaths all work towards the stat. Pick someone who a team will protect, and who likes to pick farm heavy characters and it should be good.
  • Player that picks the Most different heroes– When it comes to flexibility, there is no other player that matches Fear. He might end up picking Bane in every game, but I doubt it.

5200 Possible points

Tournament Predictions

I would love to say that I have some insider info or reasoning for these picks but the truth is that this category is completely unpredictable. You can look at the meta and think about how recent games have played, but there is nothing that can predict anything here since it’s all up to the players.

Tournament Predictions

 

 

ENTIRE SECTION– Go based off what you picked in the other categories and hope for the best. The meta is so flexible right now that we could see every game lasting over 40 minutes, or a game that lasts 15 minutes (I doubt this though) Really don’t loose too much sleep on this section though since its also worth the least amount.

4800 Possible points

 

Good luck and hopefully this helps you make some picks and get some extra Battle Points!

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